Volkswagen In Death Spiral (and it's getting worse)

大众汽车正面临重大挑战，导致大规模重组。该公司最初在3月份宣布裁员5万人，现在又宣布裁员5万人，使潜在裁员总数达到10万人。这相当于到本十年末，其全球员工总数的15-18%将被削减。工会虽然气氛紧张，但已获得不强制裁员的保证，并力争到本十年末实现9%的利润率和900万辆的销量目标。 演讲者断言，大众汽车因“无能领导层的彻底懦弱、无能和愚蠢”而“彻底完蛋了”，并且还受到官僚主义、德国政府所有权和工会要求的阻碍。他们认为，大众汽车在五年多前赫伯特·迪斯（Herbert Diess）掌权时，错失了与特斯拉合作的机会。演讲者建议大众汽车本应将特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）作为订阅服务整合，假设每年可产生数十亿美元的利润（例如，从1000万辆具备FSD功能的汽车中，以15%的全球采用率，分摊每月100美元的订阅费，第一年就能产生10亿美元的利润）。他们还建议授权特斯拉的电池、动力总成、软件和操作系统技术。 在效率措施方面，据报道大众汽车正在削减约50%的车型阵容，演讲者认为这一决定是明智的，但“晚了五年多”。工会已得到保证，不会立即关闭工厂，有争议的工厂可以被重新利用。 大众汽车首席执行官奥利弗·布鲁默（Oliver Bloomer）已获得董事会更大的授权，并已辞去其在保时捷的首席执行官职务，以专注于大众汽车的扭亏为盈。然而，该公司股价在过去五年中下跌了60%以上。斯特兰蒂斯（Stellantis）和沃尔沃（Volvo）的股价也出现显著下跌，分别超过70%和60%，这归因于特斯拉和中国电动汽车制造商的竞争。 演讲者将类似的批评延伸到丰田，称其因无能的领导而“彻底他妈的完蛋了”。他们回顾了丰田过去与特斯拉的合作（为Rav4提供电动传动系统，持有特斯拉10%的股份），但批评丰田最近追求四种独立推进形式（内燃机、氢燃料、过渡性电动汽车和纯电动汽车）的策略是“铺得太开”。演讲者预测，大众汽车正在发生的事情将在丰田重演。他们强调，未来购车决策将取决于车辆是否能（通过FSD）自动驾驶，将其比作今天选择带或不带互联网连接的电脑。他们总结说，大众汽车和丰田都是“巨大的泰坦尼克号”，它们都撞上了冰山，并处于“死亡螺旋”中。

Volkswagen is facing significant challenges, leading to major restructuring. The company initially outlined 50,000 job cuts in March and has now announced another 50,000, bringing the total to 100,000 potential job reductions. This represents 15-18% of their global workforce to be trimmed by the end of the decade. Labor unions, while tense, have secured assurances of no compulsory redundancies and are aiming for targets of a 9% margin and 9 million unit sales by the end of the decade. The speaker asserts that Volkswagen is "completely and utterly cooked" due to "inept leadership's total cowardice, incompetence, and idiocy," further hampered by bureaucracy, German government ownership, and union demands. They argue VW missed an opportunity over half a decade ago, when Herbert Diess was in charge, to collaborate with Tesla. The speaker suggests VW should have integrated Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) as a subscription service, hypothetically generating billions in profit annually (e.g., $1 billion in the first year from a 15% global take rate on 10 million FSD-capable vehicles, splitting $100/month subscriptions). They also suggest licensing Tesla's battery, powertrain, software, and operating system technology. In terms of efficiency measures, Volkswagen is reportedly cutting approximately 50% of its vehicle lineup, a decision the speaker deems wise but "more than half a decade too late." Unions have received assurances that there will be no immediate factory closures, and contentious plants could be repurposed. Volkswagen's CEO, Oliver Bloomer, has been given a bigger mandate by the board and has stepped down from his CEO role at Porsche to focus on the VW turnaround. However, the company's stock is down over 60% in the last five years. Stellantis and Volvo have also seen significant stock declines, over 70% and 60% respectively, attributed to competition from Tesla and Chinese EV manufacturers. The speaker extends similar criticisms to Toyota, calling it "completely fucking cooked" due to incompetent leadership. They recall Toyota's past collaboration with Tesla (electric drivetrains for Rav4s, a 10% stake in Tesla) but criticize Toyota's more recent strategy of pursuing four independent propulsion forms (internal combustion, hydrogen, trans EVs, and pure EVs) as "spreading themselves too thin." The speaker predicts that what is happening to Volkswagen will repeat with Toyota. They emphasize that the future purchase decision for a vehicle will be whether it can drive itself (via FSD) or not, likening it to choosing a computer with or without internet connectivity today. They conclude that both VW and Toyota are "gigantic titanics" that have collided with an iceberg and are in a "death spiral."